CONTENTS

Solution: CF-Based Derivation of Moments and Cumulants

Part 1 — Gaussian

lnφX(t)=iμt12σ2t2\ln\varphi_X(t) = i\mu t - \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma^2 t^2 is a polynomial of degree 22 in tt, so all higher derivatives vanish:
  • κ1=μ\kappa_1 = \mu, κ2=σ2\kappa_2 = \sigma^2, κ3=0\kappa_3 = 0, κ4=0\kappa_4 = 0, and κk=0\kappa_k = 0 for all k3k \ge 3.
Result: a Gaussian is entirely determined by its first two cumulants. Every higher cumulant is zero — this is the defining property of the normal distribution among continuous laws.

Part 2 — Poisson

lnφX(t)=λ(eit1)=λk=1(it)k/k!\ln\varphi_X(t) = \lambda(e^{it} - 1) = \lambda\sum_{k=1}^\infty (it)^k/k!. Matching coefficients with κk(it)k/k!\sum \kappa_k(it)^k/k!:

  • κk=λ\kappa_k = \lambda for every k1k \ge 1.
Result: every cumulant of a Poisson distribution equals its rate parameter. In particular: E[X]=λ\mathbb{E}[X] = \lambda, Var(X)=λ\operatorname{Var}(X) = \lambda, skewness κ3/κ23/2=1/λ\kappa_3/\kappa_2^{3/2} = 1/\sqrt\lambda, and...

Part 3 — Excess kurtosis

excess kurtosis of Poisson=κ4κ22=λλ2=1λ.\text{excess kurtosis of Poisson} = \frac{\kappa_4}{\kappa_2^2} = \frac{\lambda}{\lambda^2} = \frac{1}{\lambda}.

For small λ\lambda (say λ=1\lambda = 1) the Poisson has excess kurtosis 11 — meaningfully heavier tails than Gaussian. For large λ\lambda (say λ=100\lambda = 100) the excess kurtosis is 0.010.01 — essentially Gaussian, consistent with the CLT (Poisson(λ)\text{Poisson}(\lambda) is a sum of λ\lambda independent Poisson(1)s, so it converges to Gaussian).

Interpretation. Poisson has heavier tails than a matched-variance Gaussian — at low intensity, extreme counts (many defaults at once) are more likely than Gaussian would predict. This matters in credit-risk where default rates are low and the normal approximation undersells tail risk.

Part 4 — Additivity

For X,YX, Y independent, φX+Y(t)=φX(t)φY(t)\varphi_{X+Y}(t) = \varphi_X(t)\varphi_Y(t), so lnφX+Y(t)=lnφX(t)+lnφY(t)\ln\varphi_{X+Y}(t) = \ln\varphi_X(t) + \ln\varphi_Y(t). Matching Taylor coefficients:

κk(X+Y)=κk(X)+κk(Y) for every k.\kappa_k(X + Y) = \kappa_k(X) + \kappa_k(Y) \text{ for every } k.
Which moments fail. Moments do not add; only E[X+Y]=E[X]+E[Y]\mathbb{E}[X+Y] = \mathbb{E}[X] + \mathbb{E}[Y] is clean, because it is actually κ1\kappa_1. For k=2k = 2: E[(X+Y)2]=E[X2]+2E[XY]+E[Y2]\mathbb{E}[(X+Y)^2] = \mathbb{E}[X^2] + 2\mathbb{E}[XY] + \mathbb{E}[Y^2], which has a cross term. Cumulants are the clean additive "centred" moment surrogates — κ2=Var\kappa_2 = \operatorname{Var}, κ3=\kappa_3 = third central moment, etc.

Multiplicativity of CFs drives the additivity of cumulants; this is the structural advantage of cumulants over ordinary moments in anything involving sums.

Takeaways

  • Cumulants are the additive version of moments. For sums of independents, cumulants simply add; moments don't.
  • Gaussians have only two non-zero cumulants. This is the formal sense in which the Gaussian is "minimally structured" among distributions with a given mean and variance.
  • Excess kurtosis =κ4/κ22= \kappa_4/\kappa_2^2 is the standard heavy-tail diagnostic. >0> 0 = heavier tails than Gaussian; <0< 0 = lighter.
  • The Poisson sits between discrete and continuous. Each cumulant equals λ\lambda; as λ\lambda \to \infty, the distribution Gaussianises. This is the CLT for counting processes seen in cumulant form.
Solution — CF-Based Derivation of Moments and Cumulants | q4quant.studio