CONTENTS

Solution: Drift Change for a Single Brownian Motion

Part 1

f(w,t)=exp(θw12θ2t)f(w, t) = \exp(-\theta w - \tfrac{1}{2}\theta^2 t). Partial derivatives:

  • ft=12θ2ff_t = -\tfrac{1}{2}\theta^2 f
  • fw=θff_w = -\theta f
  • fww=θ2ff_{ww} = \theta^2 f

Itô:

dZt=(ft+12fww)dt+fwdWt=(12θ2f+12θ2f)dt+(θf)dWt=θZtdWt.dZ_t = \left(f_t + \tfrac{1}{2}f_{ww}\right)dt + f_w\,dW_t = \left(-\tfrac{1}{2}\theta^2 f + \tfrac{1}{2}\theta^2 f\right)dt + (-\theta f)\,dW_t = -\theta Z_t\,dW_t.
Drift term vanishes — ZZ is a (local) martingale; since θ\theta is constant, θC|\theta| \le C trivially, so Novikov holds, and ZZ is a true P\mathbb{P}-martingale.

Part 2

EP[ZT]=eθ2T/2EP[eθWT]=eθ2T/2eθ2T/2=1.\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{P}}[Z_T] = e^{-\theta^2 T/2}\cdot \mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{P}}[e^{-\theta W_T}] = e^{-\theta^2 T/2}\cdot e^{\theta^2 T/2} = 1. \quad \checkmark

(Used MGF of WTN(0,T)W_T \sim \mathcal{N}(0, T) at θ-\theta: E[eθWT]=eθ2T/2\mathbb{E}[e^{-\theta W_T}] = e^{\theta^2 T/2}.)

Part 3

Q(W~Tx)=eθwθ2T/21w+θTx12πTew2/(2T)dw.\mathbb{Q}(\tilde W_T \le x) = \int_{-\infty}^\infty e^{-\theta w - \theta^2 T/2}\cdot \mathbf{1}_{w + \theta T \le x}\cdot \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi T}}e^{-w^2/(2T)}\,dw.

Indicator becomes 1wxθT\mathbf{1}_{w \le x - \theta T}. The exponent in the integrand:

θwθ2T2w22T=12T(w2+2θTw+θ2T2)=(w+θT)22T.-\theta w - \tfrac{\theta^2 T}{2} - \tfrac{w^2}{2T} = -\tfrac{1}{2T}(w^2 + 2\theta T w + \theta^2 T^2) = -\tfrac{(w + \theta T)^2}{2T}.

So the integrand is 12πTexp((w+θT)2/(2T))\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi T}}\exp(-(w + \theta T)^2/(2T)) — density of N(θT,T)\mathcal{N}(-\theta T, T) evaluated at ww. Change variable u=w+θTu = w + \theta T:

Q(W~Tx)=x12πTeu2/(2T)du=Φ(x/T).\mathbb{Q}(\tilde W_T \le x) = \int_{-\infty}^x \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi T}}e^{-u^2/(2T)}\,du = \Phi(x/\sqrt T).

Hence W~TN(0,T)\tilde W_T \sim \mathcal{N}(0, T) under Q\mathbb{Q}. ✓

Part 4

Girsanov has shifted the mean (drift) of the process WtW_t from 00 to θt-\theta t under Q\mathbb{Q} — equivalently, made W~t:=Wt+θt\tilde W_t := W_t + \theta t a zero-drift BM under Q\mathbb{Q}. The variance / quadratic variation W~t=t\langle \tilde W\rangle_t = t is unchanged — Girsanov does not change volatility.

Takeaways

  • Doléans-Dade exponentials are the natural Radon-Nikodym derivatives for Girsanov. The form exp(θdW12θ2ds)\exp(-\int \theta\,dW - \tfrac{1}{2}\int \theta^2\,ds) is forced by the requirement that ZZ be a martingale with E[Z]=1\mathbb{E}[Z] = 1.
  • For constant θ\theta, Novikov holds trivially. The full machinery of Novikov is needed only for unbounded θ\theta (stochastic volatility, interest rates, etc.).
  • Drift change is a change of measure; volatility is an intrinsic property. Calibrating a volatility surface to market prices works; re-calibrating the drift is always possible (it's just a choice of measure).
  • The sign convention θ-\theta vs +θ+\theta depends on which direction you're going. Ask: under the new measure Q\mathbb{Q}, what is WtW_t? If W~t=Wt+θt\tilde W_t = W_t + \theta t is the Q\mathbb{Q}-BM, then Wt=W~tθtW_t = \tilde W_t - \theta t has drift θ-\theta under Q\mathbb{Q}.