Exercise: Computing ES and VaR for a binary payoff
Consider the P&L of a single defaultable zero-coupon bond with face value . With probability the bond pays , and with probability the bondholder loses the entire principal (so ).
Tasks
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Compute for .
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Compute for the same four values of .
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For which values of is ? For which is ? Interpret each case.
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Suppose the bond either pays (prob ) or only (prob ) — a haircut, not full default. How do VaR and ES at change?
Hint
Write out the CDF as a step function, then read off the quantiles and integrate.